Principle
Sets long-term direction, weighting and foundational trade-offs.
12 CURRENT; FEW_AND_STABLEKNOWLEDGE MAP / CASES & JUDGMENT
Starting with real cases, connecting judgment, methods and evidence
This first public mapping shows how real questions become cases, how cases support or challenge judgments, how methods carry judgment into the next action, and how new outcomes revise the current version.
ARCHITECTURE / FIVE LAYERS
Stable upper layers, growing lower layers—and outcomes revising the whole system
Method
Compiles principles into a complete workflow for a class of work.
6 CURRENT; EXPAND_BY_CAPABILITY_GAPJudgmentCard
Changes a specific choice under stated conditions and serves as the system's primary application unit.
12 CURRENT; TENS_TO_HUNDREDSCase
Preserves real facts, process, outcome, counterexamples and boundaries.
9 CURRENT; HUNDREDS_TO_THOUSANDSEvidenceSource
Preserves articles, dialogue, public records and de-identified practice evidence.
OPEN-ENDED; EVIDENCE_NOT_POSITIONCASES / FIRST PUBLIC SET
9 cases organised by the question they help answer
C0001CANONICAL CASE →C0002CANONICAL CASE →C0003CANONICAL CASE →C0004CANONICAL CASE →C0005CANONICAL CASE →C0006CANONICAL CASE →C0007CANONICAL CASE →C0008CANONICAL CASE →C0009CANONICAL CASE →
Orient Landscape industrial-transformation review
Can a transaction opportunity define a transformation strategy?
JDG-0001 · JDG-0002 / MTH-0001 · MTH-0002Control-acquisition risk in OriginWater and Orient Landscape
What does a buyer really assume after obtaining control?
JDG-0003 · JDG-0004 / MTH-0002 · MTH-0003Shenzhen Expressway acquisition of Lande Environmental
Why can a superficially reasonable investment logic still fail?
JDG-0005 · JDG-0006 / MTH-0002 · MTH-0004Weile convertible bond and capital structure
Should a convertible be treated as debt, equity or a dynamic instrument?
JDG-0007 / MTH-0005 · MTH-0006ST Poten debt restructuring
Why does financial stress become balance-sheet collapse?
JDG-0008 / MTH-0003 · MTH-0005Zhefu acquisition of Shenlian Group
Does a good outcome prove the original decision was sound?
JDG-0009 / MTH-0001 · MTH-0004Shangao Environment: interim reversal and final outcome
Does interim improvement mean capital operations have succeeded?
JDG-0010 / MTH-0002 · MTH-0004Environmental IPO breaks and low market capitalisation
Does low market capitalisation directly imply undervaluation?
JDG-0011 / MTH-0005 · MTH-0006Post-merger integration and synergy
When should post-merger integration begin?
JDG-0012 / MTH-0002 · MTH-0004JUDGMENT CARDS / CANDIDATES
A judgment must change a choice—and remain open to being overturned
A transaction opportunity cannot define strategy unless new facts have changed the long-term direction.
P02 · P05
Cross-sector M&A requires buyer capacity for continuing investment, governance and integration—not only a target and price.
P02 · P06
Control is both a right and an obligation to provide resources, governance and operating accountability.
P04 · P06
Transaction structure can allocate risk; it cannot repair a flawed business or asset judgment.
P03 · P04
Underlying industry, asset and execution mechanisms may conflict with the surface investment narrative.
P02 · P05
When new facts cross a preset threshold, key assumptions and continued investment must be reopened.
P05
The nature of a capital instrument changes with fundamentals, market price, time and terms.
P03 · P04 · CALL CARD →
J0008Long before financial statements collapse, investment, funding tenor and management capacity are often misaligned.
P04 · P06 · CALL CARD →
J0009A good outcome does not automatically prove a high-quality decision; judgment, execution, cycle and luck must be separated.
P05 · P07 · CALL CARD →
J0010Interim improvement cannot replace the test of final outcomes and continuing capability.
P05 · P08 · CALL CARD →
J0011Low market capitalisation does not automatically mean undervaluation; price belongs inside value, liquidity, market and realisation conditions.
P01 · P03 · CALL CARD →
J0012Pre-deal is already post-deal: strategy, diligence, structure, governance, synergy and exit must form one system.
P05 · P06 · CALL CARD →
METHODS / FIRST SET
Methods turn judgment into executable, reviewable work
Problem definition and strategic judgment
Define objectives, constraints, long-term direction and the actual decision issue.
Full M&A capability chain
Connect strategy, target, diligence, valuation, structure, governance, integration and exit.
Risk pricing and contractualisation
Translate risk into value, funding, terms, accountability and stop conditions.
Outcome review
Separate judgment, execution, external shocks and luck, then update the system.
Capital-structure scenarios
Compare capital paths across operating, market, tenor and funding conditions.
Full value bridge
Separate operating value, equity value, consideration, net proceeds and accounting effects.
CURRENT BOUNDARY