Recover the ex-ante version
Freeze the facts, assumptions, choice and stop conditions known then
MTH-0004 / Outcome feedback method
Outcome Review
A cross-scenario review of judgment, execution, cycle, external shocks and luck that updates the system.
METHOD POSITION
Outcome feedback method
Called after outcomes emerge
WHEN TO CALL
These signals call for a structured method
- 01
A project improves or deteriorates temporarily
- 02
The formal target is met but value is not realised
- 03
The team judges the original decision only from the final result
DECISION GATES
Turn the method into gates that change action
Record outcomes
Separate financial, operating, market and durable-capability results
Decompose causes
Assess judgment, information, execution, cycle, shocks and luck
Compare rejected paths
Test whether alternatives rejected then were actually inferior
Form a revision
Keep, strengthen, narrow, challenge, revise or retire the rule
REQUIRED OUTPUT
01Ex-ante judgment baseline
02Layered outcome record
03Outcome-attribution bridge
04Rule-revision change set
STOP CONDITIONS
A method must also show when not to proceed
The original information set cannot be recovered
An interim result is treated as final success
Review is used only to vindicate the original owner
RELATIONSHIPS
Cases generate the method; judgments and principles constrain it
PUBLIC BOUNDARY
This is Howard's current public method structure. It does not replace project-specific finance, legal, tax, valuation, regulatory or board judgment. Thresholds, risk appetite and final decisions remain with the responsible owners using complete facts.