TOPIC-001 / CHAPTER 03

Profit, cash and working capital must validate one another

Profit shows an accounting outcome, cash shows when it becomes real, and working capital shows who funds the journey. The three must be read together.

TOPIC-001-CH03V1.0PUBLIC FULL CHAPTER2026.07.30

DECISIONS CHANGED

  1. 01

    How much reported profit can become distributable cash

  2. 02

    How much working capital and capex growth requires from the buyer

  3. 03

    Whether collection, terms or concentration should reprice or stop the deal

01

Build the bridge from profit to cash

The profit–cash gap may come from receivables, inventory, contract assets, prepayments, payables, deferred revenue, capitalisation and non-cash items. One ratio is not enough; the gap must be explained through the operating chain.

If earnings growth comes with slower collection, more advance funding and shorter supplier terms, the buyer is also acquiring a continuing funding obligation.

02

Separate structural funding from temporary movement

Project, engineering, concession and fast-growth businesses may naturally have long cash cycles. The question is whether funding unwinds with the project and whether the company can survive the worst point, not whether annual cash equals profit.

Split working capital into normal operating need, growth investment, abnormal occupation and potentially unrecoverable amounts, then analyse by customer, project, ageing and collection path.

03

Put sustainable earnings into valuation

Valuation should not mechanically use reported earnings. Build a sustainable-earnings bridge by removing non-recurring, non-repeatable and unusual recognition, adding maintenance investment and testing cash under scenarios.

When critical gaps remain unexplained, reduce forecast confidence, widen scenarios, change payment timing or preserve options rather than hiding weak evidence inside a more precise model.

METHOD CONNECTION

MTH-0002 · Full M&A Capability ChainMTH-0006 · Full Value Bridge

PUBLIC SOURCES

ART-FMA-001 · Howard Hou: Financial Analysis in M&A